After the game on Tuesday night against Anaheim, Flyers forward Travis Konecny had scored three points for the season, four points off what his pace was at this point last year. And while the sample size is still small, it’s fair to look at his stats and ask, “What is wrong with Travis Konecny?”
It’s normal for players to regress after their rookie season. However, it’s difficult to project what a player’s true playing ability is with just a season and some change of info. With Konecny, it appears that he has been notably less visible on the ice this season. Could this be what his true playing ability is? Could it be a result of his linemates being different than last season? Or, could it be a mixture of both?
To evaluate Konecny’s play this season and to compare it to the last while also trying to see what he can change to be more successful, we are going to go over his traditional and advanced stats, who his linemates are and some observations of his on-ice play.
Konecny’s traditional stats are on pace, but his advanced stats are far behind
Nine games into the season last year, Konecny had seven points, or one goal and six assists. Although he is four points off that current pace, a lot of that could be explained by random variations that happen over the course of a hockey game. The forward is on pace for just five points below what he recorded last season if we are looking a a 70-game schedule (reason being, he only played in 70 games last season).
Looking at other traditional statistics reveals that his five-on-five ice time has gone down by just about a minute. Last year, Konecny had 12:07 minutes of average ice time, and this year, he has 11:04 minutes of average ice time. In terms of shots on goal, he has 14 so far this season compared to 20 at the same point last year.
As you can see, his traditional stats don’t really show any major differences. However, his advanced stats offer a few striking figures.
Last season, Konecny’s five-on-five score and venue adjusted Corsi for percentage was, according to NaturalStatTrick.com, 49.83, a very respectable number. This season, it has dropped tremendously; following the ninth game of the season, his Corsi for percentage is 42.23. This is a -7.60 change. This means that while Konecny is on the ice, the Flyers have faced 7.60 percent more shots on goal, shots that miss the net and shots that are blocked. This is concerning; With Konecny on the ice, the Flyers are being pushed deeper into their defensive zone and giving up more scoring chances.
His high-danger Corsi for percentage has also taken a large dip compared to last season; it has dropped from 45.41 percent last year to 37.51 percent this year, the worst on the team minus Jori Lehtera and Matt Read, who have played three and one games, respectively, and won’t be included in the measuring of these statistics.
These stats aren’t even just the result of the Flyers as a whole being poor in generating offensive opportunities. Taking a look at Konecny’s Corsi for rel. and high-danger Corsi for rel. stats reveals that Konecny is really struggling to generate opportunities compared to the rest of the team; he is second-worst on the team in Corsi for rel. with -8.51 percent and worst in high-danger Corsi for rel. with -24.39 percent.
All these advanced stats point to him being unable to generate any opportunities compared to the opposition.
What does Konecny do on the ice that offers concern?
Taking a break from statistics, it’s always important to have a proper evaluation using actual observations of his on-ice play. Against Anaheim, it wasn’t the prettiest.
Konecny looked lost at times on the ice. In one of his earlier shifts, he went in on the forecheck and won the puck from Kevin Bieksa, but his pass was taken away pretty easily; he threw it to a space where no one was.
One of the things I noticed was that his positioning on breakouts left a little to be desired. Whether he was skating behind Anaheim’s defense and trying to receive a forced pass or skating into traffic and leaving no room for the puck to get to him, it was troubling. Maybe it was just this game, but it was disappointing to see.
On Anaheim’s first goal, Konecny had the puck in the defensive zone and tried to begin a breakout, but his attempted pass to either Nolan Patrick or Lehtera was intercepted easily by Derek Grant, and within two seconds, the turnover was turned into a Ducks goal.
On Anaheim’s second goal, Konecny was caught flat-footed as Brandon Montour blew by him for the goal. In an earlier article on GNGHockey about Robert Hagg’s subtly great start, I mentioned Hagg’s defensive positioning on a play where Vincent Trocheck lost the puck in the middle of the ice. Hagg moved ever so slightly to the boards when he saw Trocheck was moving towards them. In doing that, Trocheck was forced to skate into center ice, the less preferable route, and lost the puck.
On Montour’s goal, Konecny didn’t realize Montour was starting to skate to the middle of the ice, and he didn’t follow him there to seal off the scoring chance. Remember, Hagg still followed Trocheck into the middle of the ice to complete his seal-off. Konecny did not, and his mistake, as well as Brandon Manning’s over-commitment to Logan Shaw, cost the Flyers another goal.
Overall, he just looked sloppy in this game.
Can you place blame on Konecny’s linemates?
Last year, Konecny’s usual line consisted of a combination of him, Jake Voracek and Sean Couturier (they played 233:51 five-on-five minutes together) as well as him, Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn (they played 201:11 five-on-five minutes together).
This year, it has usually consisted of him, Dale Weise and Nolan Patrick, who have all played 53:33 five-on-five minutes together. Dale Weise is no Jake Voracek or Brayden Schenn, and Nolan Patrick is no Sean Couturier or Wayne Simmonds (yet, at least). Thanks to Corsica.Hockey for the time-on-ice stats.
There is an obvious argument that Konecny has played worse due to his linemates being of much lower quality than who he usually played with last year. Konecny is joined by both Weise and Patrick at the bottom of the Flyers’ for Corsi for percentage chart.
Weise has two points this season, and Patrick has three points. Both players got points on the beautifully assisted goal by Weise against Florida, courtesy of Patrick. Other than that, both players have been mediocre. Sure, there have been moments of excellence for Patrick, but with him getting injured against Anaheim, a shakeup in lines may be coming for Konecny.
Tonight, Lehtera and Konecny played 7:16 minutes of five-on-five ice time together, and their score and venue adjusted Corsi for percentage was 38.46 together. That is not good, but it was the best of any forward Konecny played with for over two minutes. Konecny and Patrick finished with a Corsi for percentage of 37.50, and Konecny and Jordan Weal finished with a Corsi for percentage of 28.57.
There is a definite argument that Konecny’s play could be due to his linemates.
What can Konecny change?
While one could say that Konecny has not played well due to his linemates and leave it at that, that’s not the full answer. Yes, having a different pair of players to play with could help, but it is up to him to impress head coach Dave Hakstol and move up the already-difficult lineup to move up in.
How does he start to impress? Well, his positional play and breakouts could use some work.
Defensively, Konecny cannot be caught flat-footed like he was on Montour’s goal against Anaheim. Staying aware of everything going on around him will help him fight that. He needs to work on staying with his man.
His breakouts require him to get into more open areas of the ice, even if that means coming closer to the puck-carrier to be a link-man. Currently, his positioning on breakouts forces his teammates to force passes through small gaps in the opposition’s defense, and that is not helping his game. Moving closer into safer areas to receive passes would enable him to have more time to move the puck and find his teammates as well as space to move with the puck.
Currently, Travis Konecny is under-performing compared to his rookie season last year. It’s hard to remember at some points that this “kid” is still young; he’s only 20. He has years to improve his game. However, to do that, he needs to improve his positional play. Once that improves, the points will follow.
And once the points come, fans will stop asking about what’s wrong with Konecny; they’ll ask, “How good can he get?”
Originally published on GNGHockey.com